Now that holiday gift-giving and New Year’s toasts are all done, it’s time to start handing out some precious metal. Sunday’s 76th annual Golden Globes (NBC, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT) mark the first major prizes of awards season leading up to February’s Academy Awards ceremony, and USA TODAY predicts who will win (and who should) in the top movie categories.
”If Beale Street Could Talk”
”A Star Is Born”
Will win/should win: “A Star Is Born”
With its biggest competition – “Green Book” and “The Favourite” – up for the other major movie prize, expect the song-filled tale of an aging musician and his up-and-coming love interest/protege to start its Oscar run with a win here. But a “Black Panther” upset wouldn’t be out of the question for the unpredictable Hollywood Foreign Press Association.
COMEDY OR MUSICAL
“Crazy Rich Asians”
”Mary Poppins Returns”
Will win: “Green Book”
Should win: “The Favourite”
“Vice” has a Globes-leading six nominations, though the 1960s-set “Green Book” is the more conventional crowd-pleaser usually favored by the HFPA. But the right choice lies with another period piece: The female-powered “Favourite” is a delightfully quirky and excellent tweak on the stuffy costume drama that has the best chance of disrupting a glorious “Star Is Born” Oscar run.
ACTRESS IN A DRAMA
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
Nicole Kidman, “Destroyer”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Rosamund Pike, “A Private War”
Will win/should win: Gaga
She sings, she dances, she emotes and she hangs with Bradley Cooper and Sam Elliott in a role that proves she’s as high caliber an actress as she is an international pop queen. This is Gaga’s year to run the table.
ACTOR IN A DRAMA
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Willem Dafoe, “At Eternity’s Gate”
Lucas Hedges, “Boy Erased”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
John David Washington, “BlacKkKlansman”
Will win/should win: Cooper
Like his film, Cooper’s main Oscar rivals are in the comedy/musical category, but his fading star Jackson Maine is such a nuanced and watchable trainwreck of celebrity that the actor earns his prize. Plus, the guy can actually sing! Cooper should take this easily, although you can bet talented youngsters Hedges and Washington will return to the category for years to come.
ACTRESS IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”
Charlize Theron, “Tully”
Constance Wu, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Will win: Blunt
Should win: Colman
In probably the most interesting Globes category this season, Blunt’s magical British nanny is more likely to clean up over Fisher and Wu, who had Hollywood breakthroughs. Colman, however, is an absolute gem who lends funny and tragic elements to the ailing and mercurial Queen Anne.
ACTOR IN A COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Robert Redford, “The Old Man & the Gun”
John C. Reilly, “Stan & Ollie”
Will win/should win: Bale
While this likely comes down to Mortensen vs. Bale, this category is the “Vice” star’s to lose. The movie makes it quite clear that no one really knows Dick Cheney, yet Bale’s uncanny transformation into the former vice president is a masterful, immersive and engaging performance from the ex-Batman.
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Claire Foy, “First Man”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Will win: Adams
Should win: Weisz
Adams not only holds her own with Bale as the power-hungry Lynne Cheney, but she’s also a recent Golden Globes favorite (two wins and nine nominations since 2008). She and King, whose emotional mom turn is the heart of “Beale Street,” lead the way here. Still, Weisz does some of her best work ever as Lady Sarah Churchill, an embattled 18th-century aristocrat doing her best to maintain her sanity and royal standing.
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
Will win/should win: Ali
He didn’t snag the Globe two years ago during his Oscar-winning “Moonlight” season, so they’ll rectify that here. Grant is a fine foil for Melissa McCarthy and Rockwell is an on-the-nose George W. Bush, yet Ali’s understated but still dynamic role as a world-famous black pianist on a road trip through the Jim Crow South proves again he’s among Hollywood’s consistently finest.
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